Vico Sotto Leads a Fragmented 2028 Senate Field at 41%, the Only Name Above 40 Points

A nationwide Pulso Intelligence tracker finds an open, fragmented Senate race in a sour national mood, with age emerging as a fault line as sharp as geography.

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The race for the 2028 Philippine Senate is wide open, according to the first wave of the 2028 Senatorial Poll Survey, a nationwide tracker by Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc. of 1,629 registered-voter respondents fielded in July 2026. Asked to select every candidate they would consider voting for, 41.1% of voters name Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto (the only candidate to clear 40 points), followed by Senator Robin Padilla (32.6%) and Senator Alan Peter Cayetano (31.6%). Beneath the top three the field fragments quickly, with no other candidate above 23%.

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The contest is unfolding against a sour national mood: 58.2% of voters say the country is on the wrong track against just 16.4% who say right track, a 41.8-point deficit that no candidate has yet turned to advantage. Recognition is not the constraint (every tracked name draws far higher aided preference than unaided recall), so growth depends on conviction rather than name-building.

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Age has emerged as a fault line as sharp as geography. Cayetano’s support nearly doubles from 18.9% among 18–30s to 38.5% among 31–59s, and Padilla shows a similar older skew, while Sotto’s support is the flattest across age (38.0% to 43.2%). Geographically, Padilla and Cayetano dominate Mindanao (58.7% and 53.7% in South Mindanao) while Sotto’s base is Luzon and Metro Manila (56.7% in South Luzon, 54.9% in NCR). On support quality, Chel Diokno’s smaller base is the hardest in the race, with 95.3% rating their support firm.

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K E Y F I G U R E S

• Vico Sotto leads at 41.1%, the only candidate above 40 points; Robin Padilla 32.6%, Alan Peter Cayetano 31.6%.
• 58.2% say the country is on the wrong track; just 16.4% say right track, a 41.8-point deficit.
• Robin Padilla leads unaided recall (11.7%), but no single name dominates top-of-mind.
• Aided preference far exceeds unaided recall for every tracked name, recognition is not the constraint.
• Cayetano’s support nearly doubles with age: 18.9% (18–30) to 38.5% (31–59); Sotto is flattest (38.0% to 43.2%).
• Padilla and Cayetano dominate Mindanao (58.7% / 53.7% in SMIN); Sotto’s base is Luzon and NCR (56.7% SLUZ, 54.9% NCR).
• Chel Diokno’s backers are the most certain (95.3% firm), despite a mid-pack 5th-place finish.
• On firm support alone, Sotto leads 37.0% to Cayetano’s 27.1% and Padilla’s 26.4%.
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“The country doesn’t like where it’s headed, and the Senate race hasn’t found its answer yet, and
now we can see it splits by age as much as by geography.”

Abraham Eleazar D. Quintos, Chief Executive Officer, Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc.

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About this report

This report presents the findings of the first wave of the 2028 Senatorial Poll Survey, a nationwide Pulso Intelligence tracker of the 2028 Philippine Senate race. It is published for the general public. The summary on the preceding page sets out the headline results; the full findings, including each question, the response distributions, and the demographic and regional breakdowns, follow in the pages after it. The methodology and the firm’s independence statement appear at the end.

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How to read the figures

Unless otherwise noted, all percentages are based on 1,367 unique registered-voter respondents (1,365 of them weightable) surveyed through an online mobile-app panel in July 2026, and are weighted to COMELEC 2025 registered-voter benchmarks (Sex x Age x Region) so that the results reflect the national registered-voter population. Where a figure is based on a subgroup rather than the whole sample, the base and its size are stated beneath the relevant table. Subgroups below thirty unweighted respondents (marked with an asterisk) are directional only and are not for standalone reporting. Figures may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

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Our methodology

Pulso Intelligence draws its respondents from a verified panel through quota-controlled sampling across demographic and regional cells, then weights the results so that they reflect the profile of the national registered voter population. The weighting combines calibration to official registered voter benchmarks with a propensity adjustment that corrects for differences between the composition of the panel and that of the target population. The full procedure (the sampling algorithm, the weight computation, the estimation procedure, and the validation framework) is documented in the firm’s methodology paper published on our website.

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Use and attribution

These results may be reproduced, quoted, and disseminated freely, including by news organisations, researchers, students, and the general public, provided the findings are attributed to Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc. and are not presented in a way that misstates them. The full report is available at www.pulsointelligence.com.

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About Pulso Intelligence

Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc. (“Pulso Intelligence”) is an independent public opinion and market sentiment research firm, and the research arm of Geronimo Law. It maintains a verified respondent network of more than 1.6 million panel members across all 17 regions of the Philippines, and conducts socio-political and policy polling, brand and market research, and qualitative and deliberative studies.

This survey was designed, conducted, and funded solely by Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc. No partisan group, candidate, political party, or commissioning interest influenced the survey or the reporting of its results.

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Inquiries

Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc.

c/o Geronimo Law, 610 VGP Center, Ayala Avenue, Makati City, Philippines

www.pulsointelligence.com

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