Sara Duterte Leads the 2028 Presidential Race at 49.5%, Nearly Double Leni Robredo’s 26.5%

A nationwide Pulso Intelligence tracker finds a consolidated two-way contest (Duterte’s base is bigger, skews older, and is just as firm as Robredo’s), even as nearly six in ten Filipinos say the country is on the wrong track.

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Vice-President Sara Duterte holds a commanding lead in the race to succeed President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., according to the first wave of the 2028 Philippine Presidential Polls Survey, a nationwide tracker by Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc. of 1,367 registered-voter respondents fielded in July 2026. Asked whom they would vote for if the 2028 presidential election were held today, 49.5% choose Duterte and 26.5% choose former Vice-President Leni Robredo, a 23-point lead, with no other candidate reaching 3%.

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The contest is already highly consolidated. Both frontrunners command firm support (88.6% of Duterte’s backers and 94.4% of Robredo’s rate their choice a 4 or 5 on a five-point certainty scale), leaving only a modest swing bloc: 8.9% are undecided and 6.6% reject both frontrunners outright. On locked-in support alone, Duterte’s edge widens to 43.9% of the total electorate against Robredo’s 25.0%.

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Duterte’s coalition is broad and skews older, climbing from 41.7% among 18–30s to 53.1% among 31–59s, and is overwhelming in her Mindanao bailiwick (82.5% in South Mindanao, 72.3% in North Mindanao). Robredo’s support is more concentrated, strongest in South Luzon (40.7%) and Metro Manila (33.7%) and among younger and middle-class voters. The national mood remains sour: 59.0% say the Philippines is on the wrong track against just 16.4% who say right track.

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K E Y F I G U R E S

• 49.5% would vote Sara Duterte for president in 2028; 26.5% Leni Robredo, a 23-point lead.
• 59.0% say the country is on the wrong track; just 16.4% say right track.
• Duterte and Robredo dominate unaided recall (36.4% and 22.5%); no other name breaks 5%.
• Duterte’s support climbs with age: 41.7% among 18–30s to 53.1% among 31–59s.
• Duterte’s Mindanao bailiwick is overwhelming: 82.5% (SMIN) and 72.3% (NMIN); Robredo leads only in South Luzon (40.7%).
• Both frontrunners are firmly held: 88.6% (Duterte) and 94.4% (Robredo) rate certainty 4–5.
• On firm support alone, Duterte leads 43.9% to 25.0% of the total base.
• Only 15.5% is in play: 8.9% undecided plus 6.6% rejecting both frontrunners.
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“This isn’t a fragmented field like the Senate race. It’s a hardened two-way contest, and right now Duterte’s base is bigger, older, and just as firm as Robredo’s.”

Abraham Eleazar D. Quintos, Chief Executive Officer, Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc.

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About this report

This report presents the findings of the first wave of the 2028 Philippine Presidential Polls Survey, a nationwide Pulso Intelligence tracker of the 2028 presidential race. It is published for the general public. The summary on the preceding page sets out the headline results; the full findings, including each question, the response distributions, and the demographic and regional breakdowns, follow in the pages after it. The methodology and the firm’s independence statement appear at the end.

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How to read the figures

Unless otherwise noted, all percentages are based on 1,367 unique registered-voter respondents (1,365 of them weightable) surveyed through an online mobile-app panel in July 2026, and are weighted to COMELEC 2025 registered-voter benchmarks (Sex x Age x Region) so that the results reflect the national registered-voter population. Where a figure is based on a subgroup rather than the whole sample, the base and its size are stated beneath the relevant table. Subgroups below thirty unweighted respondents (marked with an asterisk) are directional only and are not for standalone reporting. Figures may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

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Our methodology

Pulso Intelligence draws its respondents from a verified panel through quota-controlled sampling across demographic and regional cells, then weights the results so that they reflect the profile of the national registered voter population. The weighting combines calibration to official registered voter benchmarks with a propensity adjustment that corrects for differences between the composition of the panel and that of the target population. The full procedure (the sampling algorithm, the weight computation, the estimation procedure, and the validation framework) is documented in the firm’s methodology paper published on our website.

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Use and attribution

These results may be reproduced, quoted, and disseminated freely, including by news organisations, researchers, students, and the general public, provided the findings are attributed to Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc. and are not presented in a way that misstates them. The full report is available at www.pulsointelligence.com.

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About Pulso Intelligence

Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc. (“Pulso Intelligence”) is an independent public opinion and market sentiment research firm, and the research arm of Geronimo Law. It maintains a verified respondent network of more than 1.6 million panel members across all 17 regions of the Philippines, and conducts socio-political and policy polling, brand and market research, and qualitative and deliberative studies.

This survey was designed, conducted, and funded solely by Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc. No partisan group, candidate, political party, or commissioning interest influenced the survey or the reporting of its results.

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Inquiries

Pulso Intelligence Labs, Inc.

c/o Geronimo Law, 610 VGP Center, Ayala Avenue, Makati City, Philippines

www.pulsointelligence.com

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