2028 Senatorial Poll Survey: July 2026 Nationwide Survey, Wave 1

• Vico Sotto led the senatorial consideration results at 41.1%, followed by Robin Padilla at 32.6% and Alan Peter Cayetano at 31.6%.
• Nearly six in ten respondents, 58.2%, believed the Philippines was headed in the wrong direction.
• Sotto performed most strongly in Luzon and NCR, while Padilla and Cayetano recorded their strongest support in Mindanao.
• Cayetano and Padilla performed considerably better among respondents aged 31–59, while Sotto’s support was more consistent between age groups.
• Chel Diokno had the firmest supporter base, with 95.3% rating their certainty four or five.
• On firm support across the total electorate, Sotto remained ahead at 37.0%, followed by Cayetano at 27.1% and Padilla at 26.4%.

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Background

The 2028 Senatorial Poll Survey is Pulso Intelligence’s nationwide tracker of the emerging Philippine Senate race. This July 2026 study represents the tracker’s first wave.

The survey was conducted against a predominantly negative assessment of the country’s direction and examined an early senatorial field characterized by substantial differences across age groups and geographic regions.

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Research Objective

The study measured which potential senatorial candidates registered voters would consider supporting if the election were held at the time of the survey.

It also examined:

• Unaided candidate recall
• Aided candidate consideration
• Certainty among each candidate’s supporters
• Candidate performance by age, region, and socioeconomic class
• Differences between unaided recall and aided consideration
• Firm support as a proportion of the total electorate
• Perceptions of the country’s direction

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Scope

The findings are based on 1,629 approved registered-voter respondents surveyed through an online mobile application-based panel in July 2026.

Results were weighted to COMELEC 2025 registered-voter benchmarks by sex, age, and region. The effective sample size after weighting was 1,287.6, with a design effect of 1.27.

The aided senatorial preference question allowed respondents to select multiple candidates. Candidate percentages therefore do not total 100%.

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• Survey method: Online mobile application-based panel
• Fieldwork: July 2026
• Respondents screened: n = 1,649
• Eligible and approved: n = 1,629
• Fraudulent responses removed: n = 20
• Final approved sample: n = 1,629
• Effective sample size: n = 1,287.6
• Design effect: 1.27
• Weighting benchmark: COMELEC 2025 registered-voter counts
• Weighting variables: Sex × Age × Region
• Aided preference format: Select all that apply
• Margin of error: Not provided

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The weighting design consisted of 32 regular sex-by-age-by-region cells and one collapsed national cell for respondents aged 60 and above.

Only 14 respondents were aged 60 or above, although this age group represented 16.8% of registered voters. The group was therefore assigned a collapsed and capped national weight, and its subgroup results were treated as directional.

Class A and four regular Western Visayas cells also contained fewer than 30 unweighted respondents and were classified as directional.

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1. Claim the change narrative now. With a 41.8-point wrong-track deficit (58.2% versus 16.4%) and no candidate yet speaking to it, the first camp to credibly own the mood has room to move; the risk of inaction is that a rival claims it first.

2. Cayetano’s camp should invest in younger voters. His consideration nearly doubles between 18–30 and 31–59 (18.9% to 38.5%), the sharpest age skew of any frontrunner and a structural ceiling with the next generation of voters if left unaddressed.

3. Resource by proven bailiwick. Cayetano and Padilla should defend Mindanao (53.7% and 58.7% in South Mindanao), while Sotto should prioritize consolidating and expanding his Luzon and NCR base before contesting Mindanao; the risk otherwise is resources misallocated to already-secure or unwinnable turf.

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Vico Sotto Led the Aided Senatorial Field

When respondents were shown a 53-candidate list and allowed to select every candidate they would consider supporting, the leading results were:

• Vico Sotto: 41.1%
• Robin Padilla: 32.6%
• Alan Peter Cayetano: 31.6%
• Loren Legarda: 22.5%
• Chel Diokno: 21.1%
• Raffy Tulfo: 20.0%
• Chiz Escudero: 18.4%
• Manny Pacquiao: 17.5%

Base: n = 1,629; effective n = 1,287.6.

Qualification: Respondents could select multiple candidates, so the percentages do not total 100%.

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Nearly Six in Ten Said the Country Was on the Wrong Track

A total of 58.2% said the Philippines was headed in the wrong direction. Another 25.4% were unsure, while 16.4% believed it was headed in the right direction.

The difference between wrong-track and right-track sentiment was 41.8 percentage points.

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Robin Padilla Led Unaided Recall

Robin Padilla received the highest reported unaided recall at 11.7%. Generic Duterte mentions followed at 9.7%, while Sara Duterte received 9.0%.

No individual senatorial candidate exceeded 12%, indicating a comparatively fragmented top-of-mind field.

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Candidate Support Varied Considerably by Age

Vico Sotto’s consideration was comparatively stable:

• Ages 18–30: 38.0%
• Ages 31–59: 43.2%

Cayetano’s consideration increased from 18.9% among respondents aged 18–30 to 38.5% among those aged 31–59.

Padilla similarly increased from 24.0% to 37.6% between the two age groups.

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Geography Divided the Leading Candidates

Sotto performed most strongly in:

• South Luzon: 56.7%
• NCR: 54.9%
• Central Luzon: 52.7%

Padilla and Cayetano performed most strongly in Mindanao:

• Padilla in South Mindanao: 58.7%
• Cayetano in South Mindanao: 53.7%
• Padilla in North Mindanao: 47.4%
• Cayetano in North Mindanao: 47.9%

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Chel Diokno Had the Firmest Supporter Base

Among respondents considering each candidate, 95.3% of Chel Diokno’s supporters rated their certainty four or five.

He was followed by Vico Sotto at 89.9% and Leila de Lima at 89.7%.

Robin Padilla recorded the lowest firm-support proportion among the 12 leading candidates at 80.9%.

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Sotto Remained Ahead on Firm Support

Firm support was defined as selecting a candidate and rating the certainty of that choice four or five.

Across the total weighted electorate:

• Vico Sotto: 37.0%
• Alan Peter Cayetano: 27.1%
• Robin Padilla: 26.4%
• Chel Diokno: 20.1%
• Loren Legarda: 18.9%

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