2028 Philippine Presidential Polls Survey: July 2026 Nationwide Survey, Wave 1

• Sara Duterte led the presidential preference results with 49.5%, compared with Leni Robredo at 26.5%.
• Nearly six in ten respondents, 59.0%, believed the Philippines was headed in the wrong direction.
• Duterte’s support was strongest in Mindanao and increased among older voters, while Robredo performed better among younger voters and in South Luzon.
• Both frontrunners had firm support: 88.6% of Duterte’s supporters and 94.4% of Robredo’s rated their certainty four or five.
• Duterte also led in firm support across the total electorate, with 43.9% compared with Robredo’s 25.0%.
• A combined 15.5% remained undecided or selected none of the listed candidates.

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Background

The 2028 Philippine Presidential Polls Survey is Pulso Intelligence’s nationwide tracker of the emerging presidential race. This July 2026 study represents the tracker’s first wave.

The survey was conducted while President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. remained in office and sought to measure both the national political mood and the early composition of the potential 2028 presidential field.

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Research Objective

The study measured which potential presidential candidate registered voters would support if the 2028 election were held at the time of the survey.

It also examined:

• Unaided candidate recall
• Aided presidential preference
• Certainty among each candidate’s supporters
• Candidate support by age, region, and socioeconomic class
• The relationship between unaided recall and aided preference
• Firm support as a proportion of the total electorate
• Perceptions of whether the country was headed in the right or wrong direction

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Scope

The findings are based on 1,367 unique registered-voter respondents recruited through an online mobile application-based panel in July 2026.

Of these respondents, 1,365 were included in the calibration-weighted results. The remaining two respondents identified outside the male and female categories for which the cited COMELEC benchmark data provided no corresponding calibration category.

Results were weighted to COMELEC 2025 registered-voter benchmarks by sex, age, and region. The reported effective sample size after weighting was 1,049.3, with a design effect of 1.30.

The study was designed, conducted, and funded by Pulso Intelligence Labs Inc. The report states that no candidate, political party, partisan organization, or external commissioning interest influenced the research or its reporting.

• Study type: Nationwide public-opinion tracker
• Data-collection method: Online mobile application-based panel
• Geographic coverage: National, Philippines
• Fieldwork period: July 2026
• Screened respondents: n = 1,700
• Eligible and approved respondents: n = 1,630
• Rejected respondents: n = 70
• Duplicate submissions removed: n = 263
• Final unique respondent base: n = 1,367
• Weightable respondent base: n = 1,365
• Effective sample size: n = 1,049.3
• Design effect: 1.30
• Target population: Registered Filipino voters
• Benchmark source: COMELEC 2025 registered-voter counts
• Weighting variables: Sex × Age × Region
• Confidence level or margin of error: Not provided

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Respondent Processing

A total of 1,700 respondents were screened. Of these, 1,630 were considered eligible and approved, while 70 were rejected.

The approved responses were then de-duplicated. The report identified 263 respondents who had submitted more than once under the same profile. Only the most recent submission from each duplicated profile was retained, resulting in 1,367 unique respondents.

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Calibration Weighting

Results were calibrated to COMELEC 2025 registered-voter counts using sex, age, and region.

The report defines the cell weight as:

where:

• NcN_cNc​ is the official registered-voter count within calibration cell ccc
• ncn_cnc​ is the number of eligible, de-duplicated respondents within that cell

Weighted survey estimates were then calculated as:

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Calibration Cells

The weighting design used:

• 32 regular sex-by-age-by-region cells
• Two sex categories
• Two principal age categories: 18–30 and 31–59
• Eight macro-regions
• One additional collapsed national cell for respondents aged 60 and above

This produced 33 calibration cells in total.

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Treatment of Small Cells

Only 12 weightable respondents were aged 60 or above, despite this group accounting for 16.8% of the registered-voter population.

The report therefore combined these respondents into a single national 60+ cell and capped its weight at the highest regular-cell weight. Results for voters aged 60 and above are classified as directional only.

Seven regular calibration cells and the Class A subgroup also contained fewer than 30 unweighted respondents. These results are likewise flagged as directional and should not be independently reported as conclusive subgroup findings.

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Independence and Disclosure

The Pulso Intelligence research team was responsible for the questionnaire, sample selection, weighting, fieldwork, data processing, analysis, and interpretation.

The study was internally funded and reportedly received no influence from a partisan group, candidate, political party, or commissioning organization.

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Limitations

• Respondents came from an online, non-probability mobile application panel.
• Exact fieldwork dates were not reported.
• No conventional confidence level or margin of error was provided.
• Respondents aged 60 and above were substantially underrepresented in the unweighted sample.
• Several demographic and regional cells contained fewer than 30 respondents.
• The weighting model used only sex, age, and region.
• Two respondents could not be calibration-weighted because no corresponding COMELEC gender benchmark category was available.
• Exact questionnaire wording was unavailable for the direction-of-country measure.
• Results represent early preferences in July 2026 and are not predictions of the eventual election outcome.

1. Robredo’s camp must expand beyond its current base. She trails by 23.0 points overall (26.5% versus 49.5%) and is weakest precisely where the electorate is largest, outside her South Luzon and NCR strongholds. A gap this size, with firm support high on both sides, rarely closes on its own.
2. Robredo should press her relative strength among younger voters. Her edge among 18–30s (33.6% against Duterte’s 41.7%) narrows sharply among 31–59s (22.5% versus 53.1%). This is currently her clearest demographic advantage and is not yet being fully leveraged.
3. The 15.5% undecided-or-rejecting bloc is the only real swing left. With 8.9% undecided and 6.6% rejecting both frontrunners in an otherwise hardened race, whichever camp fails to court this pool concedes the only movement still readily available. Late movement is likelier to come from this bloc, from soft-supporter defection, or from generational turnover than from wholesale realignment.

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Nearly Six in Ten Said the Country Was on the Wrong Track

A majority of respondents, 59.0%, said the Philippines was headed in the wrong direction. Another 24.5% were unsure, while 16.4% believed the country was headed in the right direction.

Key result: Wrong-track sentiment exceeded right-track sentiment by 42.6 percentage points.

Base: Weightable respondents, n = 1,365; effective n = 1,049.3.

Qualification: The report states that the exact field wording was unavailable and reconstructed using standard wording for this type of measure.

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Duterte and Robredo Dominated Unaided Candidate Recall

The unaided recall results were concentrated around the Duterte name and Leni Robredo. Sara or Sarah Duterte was specifically named by 36.4%, while another 36.6% mentioned “Duterte” without identifying a particular family member.

Leni Robredo received 22.5% in the reported unaided table. Vico Sotto followed at 5.0%, while no other named figure reached 2%.

Qualification: Generic “Duterte” responses were reported separately and were not automatically assigned to Sara Duterte.

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Sara Duterte Led the Aided Presidential Preference Results

When respondents were shown a candidate shortlist, 49.5% selected Sara Duterte and 26.5% chose Leni Robredo.

The remaining named candidates received less than 3% each:

• Raffy Tulfo: 2.8%
• Bam Aquino: 2.6%
• Risa Hontiveros: 2.0%

A further 8.9% were undecided and 6.6% selected none of the candidates.

Key result: Duterte led Robredo by 23 percentage points.

Base: Weightable respondents, n = 1,365; effective n = 1,049.3.

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Duterte’s Support Increased Among Older Respondents

Sara Duterte received 41.7% among respondents aged 18–30 and 53.1% among those aged 31–59.

Leni Robredo followed the opposite pattern, receiving 33.6% among respondents aged 18–30 and 22.5% among those aged 31–59.

Bases:

• Ages 18–30: unweighted n = 768
• Ages 31–59: unweighted n = 585

Respondents aged 60 and above were excluded from this comparison because their unweighted base was only 12.

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Geography Produced the Sharpest Differences

Duterte recorded her strongest results in Mindanao:

• South Mindanao: 82.5%
• North Mindanao: 72.3%

She also led in Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas, Central Luzon, Northern Luzon, and NCR.

Robredo led in South Luzon, receiving 40.7% compared with Duterte’s 33.5%. NCR was more competitive, with Duterte at 37.6% and Robredo at 33.7%.

Qualification: These are subgroup estimates. The unweighted regional bases ranged from 97 to 274 respondents.

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Duterte’s Support Was Broadly Distributed Across Economic Classes

Among reportable socioeconomic groups, Duterte’s support ranged from 40.4% to 52.8%.

Robredo’s support was strongest in Classes A, B, and C1 and declined in the lower reported socioeconomic groups, reaching 24.9% in Class D and 21.9% in Class E.

Qualification: Class A contained only 22 unweighted respondents and is directional only.

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Both Leading Candidates Had Highly Committed Supporters

Among respondents who selected each candidate, 94.4% of Robredo supporters and 88.6% of Duterte supporters rated their certainty as four or five on a five-point scale.

The report therefore characterizes both frontrunner coalitions as comparatively firm.

Qualification: These percentages are calculated only among each candidate’s existing supporters, not among the entire respondent base.

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Aided Preference Produced a Modest Lift for the Frontrunners

The report’s recall-to-preference comparison placed Sara Duterte at 40.1% unaided recall and 49.5% aided preference, representing a 9.4-point lift.

Robredo moved from 20.0% unaided recall to 26.5% aided preference, a 6.5-point lift.

The authors interpret the comparatively modest increases as evidence that both candidates were already widely recognized and would need to gain support primarily through persuasion rather than awareness alone.

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Duterte Led on Firm Support Among the Entire Electorate

Firm support was defined as selecting a candidate and assigning that choice a certainty rating of four or five.

Using this definition:

• Sara Duterte: 43.9%
• Leni Robredo: 25.0%
• Raffy Tulfo: 2.5%
• Bam Aquino: 2.1%
• Risa Hontiveros: 1.6%

Base: Weightable respondents, n = 1,365; effective n = 1,049.3.

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A Combined 15.5% Remained Undecided or Rejected the Shortlist

The aided preference question found that 8.9% were undecided and 6.6% selected none of the candidates.

The report describes this combined 15.5% as the principal immediately available swing bloc. However, whether these respondents are persuadable was not measured directly.